3rd Eye Decisions

Harnessing the Power of the Crowd

Let's return to our cow.

So, how much DOES she weigh?

Cow

The weight of the cow, or the number of M&M's in a jar, are frequently used examples of the power of the crowd. Educators and authors often cite Sir Francis Galton, a notable mathematician of the era, and his studies of the 1906 'West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition'. In this classic demonstration, 787 people guessed the weight of a cow. The average of their guesses was within one pound of the actual weight. (1,198 lbs by the way.) REF


Unfortunately, life is a bit more complicated.

"3rd Eye Decisions was developed to provide a platform for the people of this globe to be able to leverage and democratize the wisdom and insights of each other for the benefit of our own personal and business decisions."

Understanding 3rd Eye Decisions

Let's start by making sure we understand the challenge of Bias and Variance in decision making.

Bias
This term is used in a variety of settings that range from population statistics to machine-learning models. The underlying concept is reflected by the target figure to the right.
In decision making, if the center of the target is the best decision, bias can be thought of as the distance from the best decision. Alternatively, it is the distance of the actual outcome from the desired outcome.
Variance
Variance on the other hand, reflects how similar different decision outcome predictions are to each other.
If a group of individuals all guess the weight of the cow to be 200lbs, this group would demonstrate low variance, but high bias.
Bias and Variance

This is where 3rd Eye Decisions comes in!

Although the crowd can be powerful, it can also be very wrong!

Diverse People

3rd Eye Decisions leverages:

Diversity
Expertise
Oversight

Diversity

Diversity

3rd Eye's Crowd is Global

The reach of this platform ensures that Forces of Change are coming from a varied and multi-faceted perspective.

Expertise

Expertise

Subject Matter Experts

Experts understand their subject matter. It's why they contribute. Ranking ensures the best expertise is ranked the highest.

Oversight

Oversight

Futures Change

The Forces of Change change! Our system encourages continuous quality oversight and updates.

3rd Eye allows the user to connect as many Forces of Change to their decisions as they would like. This leverages the power of the crowd to minimize the potential bias and variance that typically occurs with short-term(operational) and long-term(strategic) decision making.

The user can assign 5, 10, 25, 100, even 1,000's of unique Forces to be associated with a decision. (We call the decision a "Postulate".)

Once the user assigns the Forces, the 3rd Eye Decision's back-end does all the work and all the math for you!

Let's now do a deep dive into the two fundamental aspects of 3rd Eye Decisions: Forces of Change and Postulates.

Understanding Forces of Change

The Forces of Change are the backbone of 3rd Eye Decisions.

Force of Change

/fôrs/ /əv/ /CHānj/


noun
1. A real or perceived entity, quality, person, event or action that is capable of influence.
2. Able to be measured as a value or a boolean (ie. true/false).

verb
1. The act of exerting influence or alteration.
abbreviation: "Force"

Forces of Change Features

Crowd Created
3rd Eye Users come from a variety of backgrounds with many different areas of expertise.
14 Categories
There are 14 unique categories of Forces.
Likelihood Based
0-100%
Time-Interval calculated
Multiple time intervals possible
Ground Truth comparison
The Force likelihood can be compared to the ground truth at the specified time intervals
Universal
Each force is applicable to infinite Postulates

Forces of Change

  • Life
  • Financial
  • Business
  • Environmental
  • Agriculture
  • Science & Technology
  • Social
  • Political
  • Educational
  • Health & Medicine
  • Industry
  • Legal
  • Policing & Military
  • Religion & Morality

    • Force of Change Example

    Here, we will walk through the creation of a Force of Change

    Let's presume you are the owner of a small Bakery with 30 years of experience in the baked goods sector. You are noticing a change in the costs of your supplies.

    Bakery

    From your years of experience, you are noticing a trend towards an increase in the price of flour.

    That change in the baked goods supply chain is a powerful Force of Change that you have identified. Knowledge of this trend could have global implications.

    3rd Eye allows you to capture your knowledge as a Force that others can then use as part of their own decision making. In return, you will be able to use Forces created by other people to help you with your decisions.

    So let's show you how this works:

    screen shot

    STEP 1

    Define your Force by creating a Force of Change (FOC) Title.

    The Title should be short and unique.

    "USA Flour supply for baked goods."

    STEP 2

    Describe your Force of Change

    Use this section to describe the metrics for this Force.

    You choose: "The price of flour will exceed $0.60 per pound by 2022".

    STEP 3

    Select the best Category for your Force.

    There are 14 options.

    You choose: "Agricultural".

    STEP 4

    Select the # of Time Intervals.

    You must select at least 3.

    You choose: "3".

    STEP 5

    Specify your Interval Dates and Probability

    3rd Eye automatically sets your matrix up. Just choose your interval dates and adjust the slider bar to reflect your prediction that the Force will be "True" at that date. Don't worry! Go with your instincts. You can change it any time.

    And that is all there is to it!! 3rd Eye will walk you through the creation of as many Forces of Change as you would like to create.

    Learn Advanced Options for Forces of Change

    Understanding Postulates

    3rd Eye Decisions uses the concept of "Postulates" to pull it all together.

    Now that you understand how to create a Force of Change, let's discuss how to associate those Forces with a particular decision you are trying to make.

    Postulate

    /ˈpäsCHəˌlāt/


    noun
    1. thing suggested or assumed as true as the basis for reasoning, discussion, or belief.

    verb
    1. Suggest or assume the existence, fact, or truth of (something) as a basis for reasoning, discussion, or belief.
    synonyms: theory, decision or hypothesis

    (Remember: a single Force can be re-used and applied to as many different Postulates as you would like. A unique Force of Change may have very different impacts on different Postulates.)

    Postulate Features

    Personal
    Only YOU can see your Postulates.
    The crowd shares its expertise with Forces, but only you know how a particular force will apply to your Postulate.
    14 Categories
    3rd Eye uses the same 14 categories of the Forces to cateqorize your Postulates.
    Composed of Forces
    You can associate as many Forces of Change to your Postulate as like.
    1, 5, 10, 25, 200, 1000+ There is no limit.
    The more Forces you associate, the better your Postulate.
    "Iris Value" Result
    3rd Eye uses a sophisticated back-end to reduce all of your associated Force inputs into a single result that ranges from -100 to 100
    A value of 100 strongly weights in favor of your Postulate occuring as stated.
    A value of -100 weights strongly against your Postulate occuring as stated.
    "Bias Value"
    3rd Eye calculates a bias value to inform you of how well balanced your postulate is.
    "1" demonstrates a perfect balance of positive and negative forces
    Other values demonstrate positive or negative bias of forces
    Target Decision Date (TDD)
    You choose a desired date for calculating your decision likelihood.
    The 3rd Eye back-end does all the computations to match the Forces to your Postulate timeline.
    3rd Eye also calculates 3-additonal values equally spaced between the day's date and your TDD.
    Continuously Updating
    Life changes. Forces Change. The likelihood of your Postulate will change, too!
    Every time you visit 3rd Eye, your postulates are re-evaluated against the Forces.
    Modifiable
    You can edit and modify your Postulates as often as you would like to do so. 3rd Eye adjusts your values.

    Examples of Postulates

  • Purchase Decisions
  • Education Decisions
  • Corporate Decisions
  • Environmental Decisions
  • Agriculture Decisions
  • Stocks and Investments
  • Social Decisions
  • Political Decisions
  • Strategic Decisions
  • Health Decisions
  • Manufacturing Decisions
  • Legal Decisions
  • Policing Decisions
  • Ethical Decisions

    • 3rd Eye uses a sophisticated back-end of machine-learning and probability algorithms to convert your decision making in to two key values: "Iris Value" and "Bias Value"

    3rd Eye Decisions does NOT make a decision for you. Rather, it harnesses the knowledge, experience and expertise of the crowd (the Forces) to help you understand the likelihood of your decision achieving the outcome you desire.

    3rd Eye Decisions produces two summary values to guide your decision making and strategy: "Iris Value" and "Bias Value"

    These values are continuously updating and responding to the ever changing Forces of Change applied to the decision. A good decison today, may not be desirable tomorrow.

    Futures change. So should your decisions.

    "Iris Value"

    • The Iris Value is a unitless value that ranges from -100 to 100.

    • It continuously updates itself based on the Targeted Decision Date(TDD).

    • It is the result of a mathematical algorithm that takes every assigned Force of Change as an input.

    • The closer the value is to 100, the stronger the likelihood of the decision being true at the TDD.

    • The closer the value is to -100, the less likely the decision outcome will be true.

    • In addition to the Iris Value for the TDD, the 3rd Eye algorithm calculates three additional equally spaced interval Iris Values between today's date and the TDD.

    "Bias Value"

    • The Bias Value identifies a unit of bias based on the selected Forces of Change and the assigned impact to the decision.

    • It is an infinite value from negative to positive.

    • A well balanced decision ("Postulate") will have a Bias Value of "1".

    • There is only one Bias Value assigned to a decision ("Postulate")

    • The algorithm calculates the bias based on the variety and types of Forces of Change applied to the decision ("Postulate").

    Postulate Example

    So let's pull it all together with a Postulate example...

    Bakery

    Let's go back to our bakery example. You have contributed to the knowledge of others with your recent Force of Change entry regarding the price of flour. You are now thinking about growing your business.

    In particular, you are considering the purchase of another cafe downtown.

    You obviously want to make the best decision and there are a lot of factors to consider. It is now your turn to take advantage of other 3rd Eye user's expertise.

    You can include their Force predictions in YOUR decision making process.

    So let's get started:

    screen shot

    STEP 1

    Define your Decision by creating a Postulate

    The Postulate is your statement suggested as true for the basis of reasoning or belief within 3rd Eye.

    "Purchasing the downtown cafe will increase my annual revenue by 50%."

    STEP 2

    Choose the Target Decision Date (TDD)

    This is the date upon which you would like to evaluate the success of your decision.

    You choose 12/25/2025.

    STEP 3

    Associate as many Forces of Change as you feel appropriate

    You can use pre-existing Forces of Change; or, you can create your own.

    STEP 4

    Determine the Impact of each Force of Change on your Postulate

    You can select an impact from -100 to 100.

    STEP 5

    Allow the 3rd Eye algorithm to do the math.

    The algorithm will return a single value from -100 to 100. This is your "Iris Value"

    STEP 6

    Track your Postulate!

    The 3rd Eye algorithm will continue to adjust the Iris Value based on the ever changing influence of the Forces of Change. Machine Learning is used to continuously match and update the Forces of Change to the dates of your Postulate!

    Congratulations! You now know all the basics you need to know to get started with 3rd Eye Decisions!

    Your next, best step is to simply get started. There are no start-up costs and the registration is simple. It isn't hard and you won't mess anything up. The crowd needs your expertise and you will benefit from the crowd's!

    Join the team!

    Beta vs 2.65

    NOTE: Thank you for trying us out! Please remember that we are still in Beta development. Please send comments and suggestions to info@3rdEyeDecisions.com.

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